Arthur Hayes Predicts $20B USDe Supply as Treasury Yields Signal Fed Rate Cut




Arthur Hayes Predicts $20B USDe Supply as Treasury Yields Signal Fed Rate Cut

Key Takeaways

• Arthur Hayes says weak U.S. jobs data could push the Federal Reserve toward a 50bps rate cut.

• He expects trillions in money market funds to chase higher yields in DeFi, boosting sUSDe and ENA.

• Hayes recently bought 1.395M ENA tokens, betting on the supply growth of USDe and rising adoption.

Fed Signals Spark Crypto Speculation

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is once again stirring debate in crypto markets. On September 9, he posted on X, claiming that U.S. monetary policy could soon drive trillions of dollars into decentralised finance (DeFi).

Hayes pointed to two-year U.S. Treasury yields as evidence that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may be forced to cut rates by 50 basis points after the release of weak non-farm payroll (NFP) data.

In his view, lower yields in traditional markets will push investors toward higher-return assets. With sUSDe currently offering 7% yields, he argues that a portion of the trillions locked in money market funds could flow into DeFi protocols seeking yield.

Hayes Bets on ENA and USDe

Backing up his conviction, Hayes revealed he has been accumulating ENA tokens. Between midnight and 8:00 AM on September 9, he purchased 1.395 million ENA tokens worth $1.01 million at an average price of $0.73. His call is that ENA will break $1.50, while USDe’s circulating supply will exceed $20 billion in the near future.

USDe, issued by Ethena Labs, is designed as a synthetic dollar stablecoin backed by derivatives strategies. It has grown steadily in recent months, with yields drawing interest from both retail and institutional users.

If Hayes is right, the combination of Fed policy shifts and DeFi yield opportunities could put USDe in direct competition with established players like Circle’s USDC. Hayes himself did not hold back, ending his post with a sharp message aimed at Circle: “We’re coming for you.”

DeFi Yields and Institutional Capital

The timing of Hayes’ comments aligns with growing interest in DeFi as a yield alternative. Money market funds in the U.S. currently hold more than $6 trillion. A small fraction moving into crypto could be transformative.

sUSDe, the staked version of USDe, has become a centrepiece of this conversation. By offering 7% returns, it stands out in a world where Treasury yields are falling on expectations of rate cuts.

If institutional capital begins allocating even a small portion of money market holdings into such products, DeFi could see a major liquidity boost. Hayes believes this scenario is not only possible but imminent.

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A Broader Macro Context

The weak NFP report Hayes referenced showed slowing job growth, fueling speculation that the Fed will pivot faster than expected. While Powell has been cautious about cutting too aggressively, traders are already pricing in multiple cuts before the end of the year.

For crypto markets, this macro backdrop could be bullish. Lower rates often weaken the dollar and encourage risk-taking, creating favourable conditions for digital assets. Hayes has long argued that monetary policy cycles provide tailwinds for crypto adoption.

This time, he is linking that thesis directly to DeFi, betting that a new wave of liquidity will prioritise yield-bearing assets over speculative tokens.

A History of Provocative Calls

Hayes is no stranger to bold predictions. As BitMEX co-founder, he built a reputation as both a trader and market commentator willing to challenge consensus views. His blog posts and social media updates have often moved markets.

Critics say his style is sometimes more hype than analysis, but his calls on macro trends have frequently proven accurate. In this case, his willingness to back up words with a million-dollar ENA purchase underscores his conviction.

Whether ENA truly breaks $1.50 or USDe reaches $20 billion supply remains to be seen. But Hayes’ comments have again highlighted the growing intersection of macroeconomics and DeFi.

Looking Ahead

With DeFi protocols innovating around stablecoins and yield strategies, Hayes’ prediction reflects a larger narrative: traditional finance and decentralised markets are colliding.

USDe’s design as a derivative-backed synthetic dollar makes it particularly sensitive to market sentiment and liquidity. If Hayes’ forecast comes true, it could mark a turning point for DeFi adoption, where institutions recognise on-chain yields as a viable alternative to traditional money markets.

For now, all eyes are on Powell, the Fed, and how fast rate cuts arrive. If Treasury yields keep falling and NFP data stays weak, Hayes may once again find himself on the right side of a bold bet.

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